VERY Concerned

The G-20 meeting sure smacks of the times before the darkest days of the Hoover Administration when The US became protectionist. Now it seems that it is everyone else in the world that wants to pull back of stimulus. At this point I would only buy the most conservative and highest paying stable companies I could find. Utilities like Southern Company and Dominion Resources ae about as good as they come. I have moved into the bearish camp and would keep most of your powder dry until we see clear signs of economic expansion.

Be Safe

The Truth of the matter

The truth is that the market (as measured by the Dow) is at the same level it was 10 years ago. So the important way to invest is not by investing in the "market" You do not buy whole grocery store when you go food shopping and neither should you buy the stock market. By selecting individual issues that give you what is right for your appetite you can live a long and healthy life.

For some AT&T and Royal Dutch Shell because of strong dividends and balance sheet are good investments. For me, I love to look at companies that have come from the fires of hell and show great long term potential (currently long term for me is a year). Right now I have 7 stocks in my trading portfolio. 6 are not doing well (down a little and up a little), but one (Las Vegas Sands) is doing so well that it is making up for the others and giving me a great overall return. The key to investing, in addition to all that I laid out in the list of 10 last week, is ask ask ask. If you are conservative buy conservative stocks if you are a trader, buy trading stocks. The only way you will know which is which is do your home work. My biggest laggards right now are CitiBank and Ford. Am I going to sell them, Absolutely not, I will buy more if the price goes lower. These stocks are an easy double or triple in the next two years. How about Ruby Tuesdays, next time you are hungry stop in and look at how many tables are full at dinner time. Ask the manager how business is doing compared to last year. Ask him if people like the new menu. Soon you will be looking at where you do business in a different light. Ask yourself. If I could buy the entire company would I? If the answer is yes, go look at the earnings on the internet. Are they growing? Is debt beging reduced? Are same store sales increasing. Buy buy buy. Oh and just a word to the wise, do not believe the talking heads on TV. They are selling advertising time, not stocks.

Say amen somebody

Told you

Now, tell you friends to sign up as a follower. Who knows they may even pay me for something.

Up-ward trend is in the offing

A little knee jerk reaction yesterday just to trap some bears. Positive report on economic activity in China should fling the overall market to a nice level today. There was a solid jump off the S&P support level after King Ben spoke on Tuesday and here is the line for the day: We will not visit that support level again for a long long time. Dow 12,000 here we come, even if it takes awhile to get our footing. (Young bulls do not run far from there mothers, util they get their legs} You can quote me on that.

Fed Speak

Finally, Big Ben, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said this morning that we are not going into a double did recession. All the indicators for the last 6 months confirms this or should I say he confirmed what the indicators have been saying. Hopefully, the street can now start focusing on the positive and stop the foolishness that has kept us all on edge.

Even my labrador acted like she was feeling better today. And that is a great indicator.

What me Worry?

Those were the infamous words of Alfred E Newman. And for the record yes, I worry every day. you see it is impossible to out smart the markets with timing, intelligence or fraud. At some point the market will and does humble us all. My point is if you invest you have to follow certain long time edicts:

1. Invest not thy whole wad.

2. Always keep some dry powder.

3. Buy on bad news sell on good.

4. You never loose money by taking profits

5. Never make an investment decision based on tax consequences.

6. The best way to get rich quick is to invest for the long term.

7. Buy companies that make or service products you know and love.

8. Diversify, own some stocks, bonds, CD's with some coming due each quarter,

9. Do not get married to a particular investment, when it is time to sell it is time to sell.

10. Get a companion dog, like a labrador, that will love you even if they have to eat dog food.

Most importantly, remember do not make investment decisions based on fear or greed, you will aways be on the loosing side. When you are totally worried that the world is falling apart and you are going to loose everything do not sell. When everyone around you is telling you to buy something like gold, a particular stock etc, smile and just say you will look at it, then sell it if you already own it.

have a great week

Bruce, still waiting to be able to retire

Great One year CD rate

If you want to wait out the Churning Urn of Burning Funk in the stock market I have found a better then market rate from a solid community bank Check out Franklin County United Bank headquartered in Dechard, TN 1.95% apy for one year term from a well run and capitialized bank. In view of full disclosure I am a stock holder in the bank. But, that does not detract from a good rate that is FDIC insured. Check them out.

So you think your sexy and blah blah blah

Sometimes it is just not good to get out of bed. Long term investors and traders hate flip flops. Up one day down the next. No trend is no friend. I am still standing behind my recommendations and predictions made at the beginning of the year. When this market gets legs to the up side it will be when everyone thinks that there is no way in hell they would ever invest in stocks again. For the record, I was a broker in October 1987 when the market dropped 508 points in one day and the next day there was not market. IBM could not find a buyer at 15.00 a share. Most stocks just had no bids period. The market rebounded from around 700 on the dow to over 14,000 before that rally was finished. One of my clients became a millionaire on just 200 shares of Microsoft. Oh yes, I know this time it is different. It is aways different except if you buy when no one else wants what you are buying and sell when every wants what you have. You too will be a millionaire.

It is ugly right now and it will get uglier and there is no place to get a decent return without serious interest rate risk. ie: ten year treasuries etc.

Buy now, ford, general electric, P&G, Los Vegas Sands, Alcoa, Caterpillar, John Deere, Bank of America, Citibank.

But do not do not do not put a nickel in BP and for that matter do not buy their gas either.

Now become a member of my Blog and I will try better to keep it going. I just need to know I am not writing to myself. Look at the bottom of my profile for sign up information

Buy Ford (F) Now

Holy mackerel cat fish, I know that the UAW is turning over a lot of ford stock to pay for benefits that they took on from Ford, but Ford is kicking competition but in selling cars and trucks here and in europe. Buy it now for a very very good return by years end. Just do it.

Kicking the Pro's butts

Well let's see Ken Fisher Investment Portfolio up 6% for the first quarter, Bruce up 18% for the quarter and 22% year to date. Las Vegas Sands has been a good bet up 26% since I told you to accumulate just a couple of weeks ago.

Fidelity and Janus Funds

Here you go.  I have been writing about a lot of trading during the last few months and we have had some solid winners.  Alcoa and Ford are just really getting their lets.  Look for some solid gains in them for the year and dividends shortly there after.  Right now it is time to move your long term money into the areas that have not participated.  

Janus Balance Fund was just named by Lipper as a top rated fund.  (I bought three days before the announcement)  I did that by research.  The Ticker is   JABAX  pull it up on Yahoo.com  Finance.  It is a balanced fund meaning that it has some cash, bonds and stocks.  

For the more adventuresome Look up two real estate funds  FRIFX and FRESX, for software and computer services try FSCSX and for Materials check out FSDPX all of these are from Fidelity. 

All of the above funds are free of sales commission if you keep them for a year.  I recommend you keep them for three years or more.

Now go make some money

las Vegas Sands

As mentioned a couple of days ago  Las Vegas Sands  (LVS) in fact broke out to new highs.  I still recommend this stock and expect at least another 20% out of it in the short term.

I think now is the time to be seriously looking at Tech and Real Estate mutual funds particularly no loads like Fidelity.

Still with me

Alcoa is building a base and is about to show you all what I think will grow to a 20% or better return for 2010.  Home Depot with a 3% dividend is poised to move higher as the economy moves forward in spring.  Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is building a nice support level here in the mid 19's.  This stock has made me a bunch of gains in the last year as a short term trade between 15 and 18 now it is getting ready to move to the mid 20's and beyond.  Buy in 20% increments of your intended total investment in this company (buy 100 shares out of desire to buy a total of 500)  If it moves down buy more if it moves up buy more.  Do this no more often then once per week to the aggregate.  

A new Paragraph for Ford (F).  By it period!  Ford is winning and will show great sales going forward.  It is my largest position and I have owned it from just over $6 per share.  

Start looking for REITS for a good IRA investment vehicle  HRP, WRE    and HPT deserve a look.  I do not like them for non IRA accounts because of the Tax forms that can come as late as the end of March each year.  

I as still standing by my 12,000 DOW predication for 2010   Have fun

Airlines

Sold AMR Jet Blue and US Air.  gain over 26% on AMR and US Air gain of 3% on Jet Blue all in 17 days   Take the money and run.  Wait for next pull back and buy again

Buy the company not the market

In December, I make a statement about airlines flying high and suggested buying on dips.  Well, I took my own advise and after watching American, Jet Blue, and U S Air raise rates again, it was time to jump in.  The result, even though the stock market has been languishing in uncertainty, has been amazing.  I bought on February 1st and as of February 12, the growth of my investments thus far:  American Air lines up 21.14%, Jet Blue up 1.79% and US Air up 22.93%.  Those are not annualized returns, they represent just 2 weeks.

I had also said that Alcoa was going to be a winner.  And it will be Buying at current levels is something I am looking very closely at.  

I had predicted that jobs would grow in January, well I missed that one by just 22,000 jobs.  Okay I will take a hit on that one, but I think I missed it just by a month.  Watch for February it should be the turning point.  

Also, just in case you missed it.  Ford Motors is about to break to the upside again.  My target is 15 plus per share.  I think by the end of 2011 they will even reinstate a dividend.

American Tel and Tel is being held back right now by the ongoing directed competition with Verizon, I still like the stock and love the dividend.

Meanwhile CD rates still are sucking wind.  Look to local credit unions for one year rates of 2:00%.  Rates should start up during the second half of the year.

Know when to hold them, know when to fold them

This market requires traders to get in a rhythm and longer term investors to buy and hold on the dips like yesterday and today.  The most important thing is do your home work,  look at earnings going forward and looking back, revenue growth and book value.  There are aways screaming buys in the equities market, you just have to get in the flow.  Buy on dips.  

ibm

It has broken below 130 and is very close to a support trend line this morning.  It may be a good time to stick your toe in the water/

IBM

IBM is down almost 2% in after hours trading.  I would not jump at it tomorrow.  Give it some time to digest and see what they have that is new that can take the stock higher.  If you traded out today, you are in the money

IBM

Looks like IBM has been driven up quite a bit in the last week and is at resistance. I traded out of some 125 July Calls this afternoon as I think we will see an INTEL style pull back on the great earnings that everyone is expecting on IBM/   I still think she has a way to go in the next quarter or so, but I think you may get a great buying or buy back opportunity in the next day or so.  

  

Alcoa Looking Good

Alcoa was the first to report earnings and they surely looked good to me.  The market will be coming to this stock in the next few months.  The market was expecting earnings of .06 per share on earnings of 4.82 bil revenue. What they got was rev of 5.4Bil but the per share was only .01

I expect earnings to continue to improve as auto building, aeroplane construction and infrastructure demand increase worldwide.

Remember Alcoa dropped like a rock last year and it is now a very tight rubber band.  Look for some great price appreciation as the year progresses.

My Alcoa position is up 33 % over the last 8 months or so.   I am adding to my position at the lower price on Tuesday. 

Hey, their revenue was almost $500 mil over estimates.  They expensed items this quarter and that hit the per share earning.  This is a screaming buy.  Get my drift.